Creating Estimates

If a client has Core Coverage, we can then write individual SOWs for specific projects, such as:

Strategists plan this work with clients within Core Coverage or during a Diagnostic. Part of this planning generally includes an estimate.

We use two methods for estimation, attempting to combat Hofstadter’s Law:

These techniques appear to be in conflict, but they dovetail in a few important ways for us, and we find that using them redundantly provides more accurate projections overall (probably due to a "wisdom of the crowds" effect).

Our core estimation method is the WBS. We break down every phase and deliverable into its constituent parts, then estimate each part individually rather than looking at large deliverables as a monolithic piece.

Secondly, reference-class forecasting provides us with an overall initial ballpark for where the project might end up. Assembling a class of similar historic projects will provide at least an order of magnitude for the new project that is fairly reliable if the sample size is anything more than tiny. If you are newer to the company and don’t have a rolodex of prior project results in mind, check out the and ask the PM group if you need more information on any projects.

With WBS estimation, since our projects involve doing similar granular tasks on many projects, reference-class forecasting allows us to make more accurate estimates for each individual task. For instance, creating a sitemap is something we do on virtually every project. If we review how long it has taken on five similarly-structured projects, we are likely to have a good measurement for what it will take on a new project.

On any given new site build, we have probably done 80-90% of the constituent tasks before, just perhaps not in the same orientation or with the same parameters. Looking granularly provides more specific reference-class data to analyze.

Estimation is also a collaborative art. Use your teammates, especially those who have worked on similar projects, to provide second opinions on each granular projection. Use the client as well. In keeping with Cantilever’s core value of transparency, we frequently share estimates with clients or leads. In addition to bolstering trust between the parties, clients can also point out erroneous work or missing items in our WBS.

All billable work should be included in an estimate. This includes project management, QA, client reviews, etc. If the SOW will say it is billable time, it should be included in any provided estimates.

Please review the sales Drive to find estimates for similar prior projects. We are also making a series of sample estimates to help in creating a WBS. Here is the first:

Here is a video of Ty walking through this methodology: